The SignalVest Playbook

The SignalVest Playbook outlines how we evaluate risk, narrative, and positioning to identify asymmetric opportunities and to avoid permanent capital loss. Every SignalVest analysis uses a structured four pillar model to determine when a setup is actionable, when risk is mispriced, and when governance or dilution signals are turning into material red flags.

The Playbook is designed for investors who want clarity instead of noise and who prefer a methodical reading of incentives, flows, fundamentals, and market structure.

The Four Pillars of SignalVest Analysis

1. Fundamentals

We examine the underlying quality of the business and its financial reporting. This pillar integrates traditional forensic accounting with capital structure diagnostics.

Key elements include

Quality of earnings
Revenue recognition patterns
Accrual trends
Dilution cycles
Capital raises and warrant structures
Insider selling and compensation alignment
Sustainability of cash flow and margins

This pillar carries the highest weighting because accounting degradation, capital starvation, or incentive misalignment often surface before the market realizes that the narrative is cracking.

2. Sentiment and News Impact

Markets move on expectations before they move on fundamentals. We evaluate the shape and tone of information entering the market including how the narrative is evolving relative to price, options activity, and the rate of change in media coverage.

This pillar covers

Shifts in management tone
Narrative inflection points
Analyst posture
Retail concentration and social amplification
Pre event sentiment structure
Gap between fundamentals and forward expectations

Sentiment helps determine whether the market is leaning too far to one side. When narratives become one directional, asymmetric opportunity or risk emerges.

3. Technical Confirmation

No setup is valid until price, liquidity, and structure confirm it. Technicals provide timing, validation, and invalidation.

This pillar includes

Volume profile analysis
Key liquidity zones and imbalances
Behavior around major levels
Trend structure
Momentum confirmation
Breakdown or breakout conditions

Technicals are not used for prediction but for confirmation. They answer a simple question, is the market agreeing with the thesis or rejecting it.

4. Institutional Positioning

Institutional behavior often reveals the real underlying narrative. We analyze how capital allocators, hedge funds, and systematic flows are positioning before and after key events.

Inputs include

Options skew and term structure
Dealer positioning
Dark pool and block flow behavior
Implied volatility compression or expansion
Hedge fund consensus vs surprise potential
Flow divergence from public narrative

Institutional flow does not provide perfect signals, but it often provides earlier warning or validation than fundamentals or news.

How the Four Pillars Work Together

The Playbook does not rely on any one pillar. Instead, we examine the alignment or divergence across pillars to determine three core outcomes.

1. Green Zone

Asymmetry is favorable and risk is identifiable.
Multiple pillars are aligned and the setup has structure, conviction, and a repeatable logic.

2. Yellow Zone

A setup exists but is incomplete.
A pillar is missing, a narrative is uncertain, or technical structure is not confirming.
These require patience, not action.

3. Red Zone

Risk of permanent loss is increasing.
Dilution, governance drift, narrative cracks, or positioning signals indicate deterioration.
These situations become candidates for Red Flag Reports.

How SignalVest Decides What to Publish

SignalVest does not publish every idea considered. A setup must pass internal thresholds.

A topic qualifies for publication when

At least three pillars align
There is asymmetry in risk to reward
There is a measurable narrative shift
Accounting or positioning signals indicate early opportunity or early danger
There is institutional relevance or mass retail mispricing

SignalVest publishes fewer but higher conviction analyses rather than a high volume of surface-level commentary.

Interpreting SignalVest Reports

Each report follows a consistent analytical arc.

Overview of the narrative versus fundamentals
Forensic accounting and dilution risks
Governance and incentive structure
Sentiment and narrative drift
Institutional and options positioning
Technical structure and timing considerations
Asymmetric setups or red flag warnings

The goal is to provide clarity, not prediction.
SignalVest reports are built to help investors understand risk structure so they can make more informed and confident decisions.

Who the Playbook Is For

The Playbook is designed for

Individual investors seeking deeper analysis and risk clarity
Hedge fund analysts and PMs who want a second lens on governance and dilution risk
Family offices concerned with adverse selection and capital preservation
Traders who want context behind event driven setups
Anyone who wants to understand why the market misprices risk

Closing

The SignalVest Playbook is not a trading system. It is a structured approach to reading markets, incentives, narratives, and financial integrity.
It gives investors a consistent framework for evaluating opportunity and danger in a world where noise often overwhelms signal.